Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d8e…b446 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$49 (-16%) realized −$47 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$22
14 days−$15
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-45.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +22.8% +11.1% 100% 100% +10.9%
≤30d 10 -39.8% -45.5% 40% 30% -29.5%
≤90d 10 -39.8% -45.5% 40% 30% -29.5%
all 10 -39.8% -45.5% 40% 30% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.5% 30% -29.5%
10% -50.7% 20% -36.3%
15% -55.5% 10% -42.4%
20% -59.8% 10% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage15d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $65 $64 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $54 +$12 +21%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $44 +$11 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $39 −$30 -78%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 +$2 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $66 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $14 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $40 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $44 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 13d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 89¢ $8 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 14d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 14d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 15d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 15d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.59 · official $63.59 (match) · 21 history records