Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5d91…3578 sports 352 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$38,854 (+26%) realized +$29,034 · open +$9,820
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%184W / 137L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$432per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$225est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$30,437now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$138
30 days+$2,283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$34,348
sports 18% +$6,422
crypto 7% +$258
other 4% −$2,276
politics 0% −$112
tech 0% +$26
finance 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 178 -5.5% -14.5% 62% 52% -2.2%
≤90d 229 -4.5% -13.6% 62% 55% +8.7%
all 321 -5.3% -14.3% 57% 50% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 50% +10.4%
10% -22.5% 42% -0.1%
15% -30.0% 30% -9.8%
20% -36.9% 19% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$254 vs −$131 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$30,437
Realized+$29,034
Unrealized+$9,820
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses184 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions30
Markets (closed)321 / 352
History coverage246d
Avg bet$432
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? No 45¢ 99¢ $6,487 $14,172 +$7,685 (+118%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? No 64¢ 97¢ $4,119 $6,223 +$2,103 (+51%)
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? No 75¢ 99¢ $3,207 $4,243 +$1,036 (+32%)
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30? No 75¢ 97¢ $1,131 $1,476 +$345 (+31%)
Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30? No 86¢ 97¢ $936 $1,064 +$127 (+14%)
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Yes 62¢ 39¢ $1,532 $959 −$573 (-37%)
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? No 82¢ 99¢ $549 $666 +$117 (+21%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $167 $154 −$13 (-8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $171 $145 −$26 (-15%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by September 30? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $134 $128 −$7 (-5%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 79¢ 97¢ $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Yes 57¢ 6¢ $1,069 $113 −$956 (-89%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? No 45¢ 56¢ $92 $112 +$20 (+22%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 90¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $70 $100 +$30 (+43%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 70¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026? Yes 75¢ 66¢ $90 $80 −$10 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $100 $66 −$34 (-34%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $48 $45 −$4 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $33 $44 +$11 (+32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $70 $40 −$30 (-44%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 33¢ $41 $24 −$16 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$3 +13%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $56 −$55 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$11 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$51 +101%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $218 −$215 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $207 +$134 +65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $51 +$55 +108%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $40 +$27 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $323 +$134 +42%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $252 +$83 +33%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $51 +$36 +72%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$6 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $85 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$6 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1,957 +$31 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $505 −$403 -80%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $375 −$265 -71%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $146 +$143 +98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $251 +$55 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $129 −$127 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $56 +$53 +93%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $51 +$74 +146%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $30 +$20 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $352 +$85 +24%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $101 +$43 +43%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $201 +$46 +23%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $101 +$31 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $151 +$49 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $147 +$95 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $109 −$107 -99%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $41 −$2 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $352 −$350 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $25 1h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by September 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 13h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by September 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $14 13h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 24h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by September 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 41h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by September 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $88 46h
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30,437.48 · official $30,451.18 (match) · 2181 history records