Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d92…a69d politics 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate11%3W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$96
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$10
sports 23% −$2
crypto 15% −$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -51.6% -56.2% 0% 0% -56.2%
≤30d 9 -2.0% -11.3% 11% 11% -9.7%
≤90d 28 -0.7% -10.2% 11% 4% -9.7%
all 28 -0.7% -10.2% 11% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 4% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 4% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$550) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$4 · ×7.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses3 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage86d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $91 $91 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $186 −$96 -52%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $272 +$94 +35%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $186 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $91 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $91 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $183 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $185 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $185 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $92 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $278 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $93 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $96 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $643 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 21 $96 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $96 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $96 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 07 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 02 $550 −$1 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $553 −$3 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $554 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $555 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $91 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $90 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $90 8d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $90 8d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $90 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $90 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $90 12d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $91 12d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $91 14d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $91 14d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $91 15d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $91 15d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $91 17d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 17d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 19d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 19d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 20d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 20d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 20d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 20d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 24d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 24d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 25d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 25d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 27d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 27d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 28d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 28d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 34d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.96 · official $90.96 (match) · 179 history records