Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:08:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d95…83be other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+2%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate58%31W / 22L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$3
other 29% +$21
tech 14% +$3
politics 12% $0
crypto 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 -2.8% -12.1% 56% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 16 -2.8% -12.1% 56% 0% -9.9%
all 53 +0.6% -9.0% 58% 8% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 8% -8.1%
10% -17.7% 4% -16.9%
15% -25.7% 2% -24.9%
20% -33.0% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.81 per $1 lost it wins $3.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses31 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage448d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $53 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $150 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $53 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $29 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 18 $44 +$1 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $33 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -14%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $99 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $14 −$1 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $56 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $8 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -30%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 27 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 05 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the Browns draft Abdul Carter? Apr 28 $6 $0 +2%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 22 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 44.0% on April 25? Apr 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in his first 100 days? Apr 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 17 $39 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 13 $11 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 13 $28 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 11 $9 +$2 +19%
Will AppLovin buy TikTok? Apr 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $22 +$21 +93%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 07 $22 +$1 +2%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $48 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $46 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $50 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $51 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $10 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $28 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $21 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $12 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $11 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $13 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $21 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $22 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $7 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $29 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 211 history records