Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:02:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d99…a28a crypto 57 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-1%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate46%26W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day72.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$118
other 5% +$31
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +3.4% -6.5% 48% 37% -11.7%
≤30d 57 -2.1% -11.4% 46% 35% -11.9%
≤90d 57 -2.1% -11.4% 46% 35% -11.9%
all 57 -2.1% -11.4% 46% 35% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 35% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 25% -20.4%
15% -27.6% 16% -28.1%
20% -34.7% 7% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$25 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage1d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day72.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $117 −$115 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $117 −$2 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $77 +$17 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $94 +$28 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $62 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $55 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $54 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $398 +$58 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $74 +$30 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $152 +$40 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $332 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $102 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$16 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$125 +393%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $92 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $104 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$100 +945%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $72 +$35 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $156 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $32 +$17 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$11 +22%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $85 +$36 +43%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -15%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2 $0 -16%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 $0 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $115 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $121 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $94 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $94 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $77 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $62 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $60 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $55 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $56 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $54 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $37 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $201 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records