Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:48:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d99…133c world 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%20W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$5
other 19% +$3
politics 16% $0
sports 12% −$1
economics 11% −$3
crypto 3% −$1
culture 3% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.6% -8.1% 55% 9% -9.0%
≤30d 28 +0.6% -9.0% 43% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 38 -3.2% -12.4% 37% 3% -9.6%
all 58 -2.0% -11.3% 34% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses20 / 38
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage334d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 20 $66 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $133 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $123 −$2 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $96 +$2 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $107 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $92 +$3 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $50 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $182 −$2 -1%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $103 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $94 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $103 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $204 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $131 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $217 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $62 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $89 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $159 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $105 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $65 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $62 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $562 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $693 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $32 −$1 -4%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $147 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $22 −$3 -12%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $9 −$2 -20%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $678 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $563 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Jul 25 $79 −$1 -1%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 25 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 25 $87 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jul 24 $87 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? Jul 24 $97 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 18–25? Jul 22 $87 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 22 $81 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 22 $7 +$1 +9%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 22 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $66 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $66 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $107 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $94 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $5 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $30 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $16 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $13 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $16 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $18 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $96 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $48 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $5 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $43 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $96 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $18 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $107 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $13 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $43 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $52 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 245 history records