Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5D 0x5d9e…e0e3 sports 753 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (208 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30,826 (-28%) realized −$30,839 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate49%536W / 551L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day208.0pace
Fees−$855est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39,703
7 days−$33,927
14 days−$25,645
30 days−$25,645
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$14,796
other 2% −$429
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (208 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 696 -61.2% -64.9% 27% 25% -46.1%
≤30d 1087 -31.2% -37.8% 49% 35% -27.0%
≤90d 1087 -31.2% -37.8% 49% 35% -27.0%
all 1087 -31.2% -37.8% 49% 35% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover208.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.8% 35% -27.0%
10% ← realistic here -43.7% 23% -34.0%
15% -49.2% 6% -40.4%
20% -54.1% 3% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -83% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$86 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized−$30,839
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses536 / 551
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$855
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1087 / 753
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$146
Trades / day208.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1087 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $171 $176 +$4 (+3%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 75¢ 92¢ $130 $159 +$29 (+22%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Under 77¢ 66¢ $136 $115 −$20 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Turma do Pagode (BO3) - CCT South America Se Jun 17 $291 −$291 -100%
Coventry City FC vs. Preston North End FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 17 $316 −$316 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-04? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-01-31? Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Cúcuta Deportivo FC vs. Fortaleza CEIF end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Shymkent: Bekkhan Atlangeriev vs Viktor Durasovic Jun 17 $220 −$220 -100%
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Alex Molcan Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Al Okhdood SC vs. NEOM SC end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Telstar 1963 win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $299 −$299 -100%
Will Henan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Oeiras 4: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Mona Barthel Jun 17 $218 −$218 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $117 −$202 -172%
Le Mans FC vs. USL Dunkerque: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
California-San Diego Tritons vs. CSUN Matadors Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Al Okhdood SC win on 2026-02-02? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Hersonissos: Toby Samuel vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Tallahassee: Daniil Glinka vs Stefan Dostanic Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Madrid Open: Shuai Zhang vs Eva Lys Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Fortaleza CEIF vs. Llaneros FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Preston North End FC win on 2026-03-06? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 17 $189 −$189 -100%
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs. Chicago State Cougars Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Suns: O/U 223.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Kasintseva vs. Osaka: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Girona FC vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
US Lecce vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Barcelona Open: Mariano Navone vs Andrey Rublev Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $199 −$199 -100%
Oilers vs. Flames: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-03-11? Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-03-04? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-04-26? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC vs. En Avant Guingamp end in a draw? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Solary - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Lightning (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Madrid Open: Elise Mertens vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - CCT South Amer Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-01-28? Jun 17 $97 −$92 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 75¢ $131 30m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $4 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $56 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $4 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $4 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 88¢ $4 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $325 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 20¢ $2 2h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 80¢ $4 5h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 32¢ $2 5h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 12¢ $5 5h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 13¢ $5 5h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 90¢ $4 5h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 91¢ $5 5h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 91¢ $5 5h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 64¢ $4 5h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 65¢ $4 5h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 93¢ $5 5h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 31¢ $5 5h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 31¢ $3 5h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 31¢ $2 5h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 5¢ $1 5h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 6¢ $3 5h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 7¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.99 · official $449.99 (match) · 3500 history records