Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:29:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5d9e…eb7a crypto 72 markets active 2d ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$89 (+0%) realized +$90 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate97%68W / 2L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$664per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$124
14 days+$154
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$83
crypto 10% +$5
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +19.3% +7.9% 100% 20% -8.8%
≤30d 13 +8.8% -1.5% 100% 15% -9.1%
≤90d 15 +7.7% -2.6% 100% 13% -9.1%
all 70 +1.0% -8.6% 97% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 4% -9.4%
10% -17.4% 3% -18.0%
15% -25.4% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$196 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$90
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses68 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage203d
Avg bet$664
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $3,879 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $3,762 +$107 +3%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14? Jun 15 $3,767 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $3,763 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $3,760 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $3,749 +$11 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $3,745 +$4 +0%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 07 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 5? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $3,699 +$11 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on April 6? May 11 $20 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 06 $20 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Feb 03 $3 $0 +1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 1? Feb 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.90 and $2.00 on February 1? Feb 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 1? Feb 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1? Feb 03 $8 $0 +6%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 1? Feb 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026? Feb 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on February 1? Feb 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $80 on February 1? Feb 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 January 26-1? Feb 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 03 $329 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 03 $2,500 +$9 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on January 31? Feb 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of January? Feb 01 $6 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $6 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 31? Feb 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on January 31? Feb 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 01 $10 $0 +5%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January? Feb 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 31? Feb 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on January 31? Feb 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026 Jan 31 $260 +$84 +32%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of January? Jan 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $555 end of January? Jan 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.20 on January 30? Jan 31 $64 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 31 $2,698 +$55 +2%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $14 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on January 28 Jan 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 29? Jan 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 29? Jan 29 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on January 29? Jan 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 29 $2,500 +$18 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 27 Jan 28 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,879 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2,462 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY 2¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $78 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,166 3d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $3,767 5d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,763 8d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,760 9d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $534 10d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,170 10d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 10d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,745 11d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $426 13d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,795 13d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $924 13d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $555 13d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori BUY Granollers/Zeballos 85¢ $5 13d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 38d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $20 72d
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $20 90d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $329 137d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 137d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.90 and $2.00 on February 1? BUY No 100¢ $6 137d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 January 26-1? BUY No 100¢ $27 137d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.83 · official $8.83 (match) · 150 history records