Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:49:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5da9…5d5d crypto 266 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (773 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+4%) realized +$49 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate63%167W / 98L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day773.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (773 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 265 +2.7% -7.0% 63% 57% -8.0%
≤30d 265 +2.7% -7.0% 63% 57% -8.0%
≤90d 265 +2.7% -7.0% 63% 57% -8.0%
all 265 +2.7% -7.0% 63% 57% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover773.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 57% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 43% -16.8%
15% -24.1% 35% -24.8%
20% -31.5% 25% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses167 / 98
Open positions1
Markets (closed)265 / 266
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day773.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 58¢ 94¢ $5 $9 +$3 (+62%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 52¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$11 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$17 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.26 · official $8.97 (match) · 1051 history records