Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:31:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5daf…7d98 sports 220 markets active 5d ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$854 (-10%) realized −$854 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%78W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$224
14 days−$516
30 days−$617
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$402
other 24% −$325
crypto 8% −$146
weather 1% −$60
world 0% −$1
finance 0% +$7
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -52.8% -57.3% 19% 19% -19.7%
≤30d 97 -18.5% -26.3% 28% 28% -18.9%
≤90d 212 -21.5% -28.9% 34% 33% -20.4%
all 220 -20.5% -28.1% 35% 34% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 34% -18.2%
10% -35.0% 31% -26.0%
15% -41.2% 27% -33.2%
20% -47.0% 25% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$22 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$854
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses78 / 142
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)220 / 220
History coverage95d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 220 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 13 $20 −$11 -56%
Antonio Sanabria: 1+ goals Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots Jun 13 $5 +$3 +68%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 13 $33 −$33 -99%
Antonio Sanabria: 2+ shots Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Weston McKennie: 1+ assists Jun 12 $21 −$18 -88%
Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists Jun 12 $5 −$3 -60%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $41 −$40 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $223 −$223 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 12 $15 +$18 +115%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 −$4 -86%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -92%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 −$29 -57%
Pavel Šulc: 2+ shots Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Patrik Schick: 3+ shots Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $257 +$109 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $26 +$70 +275%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $25 −$9 -36%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $21 −$8 -39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -7%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $852 +$161 +19%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 10 $33 −$33 -98%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $10 −$2 -21%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 10 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 10 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 10 $10 $0 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 10 $20 −$1 -4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 10 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $208 −$171 -82%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 09 $30 −$2 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 09 $10 $0 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 09 $10 $0 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 09 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 09 $20 −$1 -3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 09 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 09 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -11%
DR Congo vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $10 +$10 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $17 4d
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals SELL Yes 17¢ $9 4d
Antonio Sanabria: 1+ goals SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots SELL Yes 99¢ $9 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 63¢ $33 4d
Antonio Sanabria: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $6 4d
Antonio Sanabria: 2+ shots BUY Yes 50¢ $25 4d
Weston McKennie: 1+ assists SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Weston McKennie: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $21 4d
Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4d
Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots BUY Yes 65¢ $20 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $41 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 39¢ $10 4d
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $5 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $15 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $223 5d
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 23¢ $22 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $25 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 562 history records