Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:08:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5db4…3a77 other 205 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$739 (-8%) realized −$739 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate62%128W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$10
14 days−$141
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$451
crypto 12% −$110
weather 7% −$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +19.5% +8.1% 67% 67% -0.0%
≤30d 27 -6.3% -15.2% 59% 30% -15.6%
≤90d 102 -13.1% -21.4% 58% 28% -16.6%
all 205 -14.0% -22.2% 62% 20% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 20% -17.5%
10% -29.6% 10% -25.4%
15% -36.4% 7% -32.6%
20% -42.7% 6% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$18 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$739
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses128 / 77
Open positions0
Markets (closed)205 / 205
History coverage118d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 205 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $44 −$13 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $27 +$19 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $23 +$4 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $36 −$12 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$24 +456%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $40 +$8 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $151 +$16 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $99 +$9 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $100 −$72 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $199 +$8 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $199 +$18 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$22 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 31? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $200 +$44 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $202 −$43 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 27? May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $299 +$21 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $99 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 23? May 23 $10 +$3 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 23? May 23 $5 −$3 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $199 +$22 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $100 +$14 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 16? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $80 +$7 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $99 +$9 +9%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $105 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 8? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $99 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 30 Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $99 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $99 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $99 +$10 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $99 +$7 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $198 −$51 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $99 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $32 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $44 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $27 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 5d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $23 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $24 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $36 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $101 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $102 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $17 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 10d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $50 11d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $100 11d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $100 12d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $100 14d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $105 14d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 14d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 14d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 50¢ $5 16d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 17d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $29 17d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $99 17d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $100 17d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $100 17d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $90 17d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $100 17d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 5? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 529 history records