Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5db7…e9a0 crypto 972 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$199 (+6%) realized +$199 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%532W / 441L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$0
14 days+$114
30 days+$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 -1.7% -11.1% 58% 49% -9.4%
≤30d 521 +4.3% -5.7% 59% 50% -4.4%
≤90d 973 -0.7% -10.1% 55% 50% -5.9%
all 973 -0.7% -10.1% 55% 50% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 50% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 45% -14.9%
15% -26.6% 39% -23.1%
20% -33.8% 35% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses532 / 441
Open positions0
Markets (closed)973 / 972
History coverage50d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 973 Trades
no open positions (344 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1964 history records