Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5D 0x5dba…4fe1 sports 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$860 (+13%) realized +$860 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%55W / 46L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$456
7 days+$575
14 days+$575
30 days+$575
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$712
crypto 36% −$72
other 13% +$216
world 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -23.8% -31.1% 48% 32% -0.4%
≤30d 79 -23.8% -31.1% 48% 32% -0.4%
≤90d 79 -23.8% -31.1% 48% 32% -0.4%
all 101 -10.6% -19.1% 54% 38% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 38% +1.7%
10% -26.8% 34% -8.0%
15% -33.9% 30% -16.9%
20% -40.4% 26% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$26 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$860
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses55 / 46
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage163d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) DR Congo 87¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $213 +$26 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-2.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+2.5) Jun 17 $95 +$172 +180%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $162 −$134 -82%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $30 +$4 +12%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $107 +$183 +172%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$51 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $107 −$97 -91%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $217 +$146 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$20 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $106 +$9 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $139 +$266 +192%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$42 +83%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +82%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $306 +$42 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $201 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $226 +$9 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $452 +$24 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $110 +$6 +5%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 15 $450 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $150 +$4 +3%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $401 +$34 +8%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $131 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $126 +$91 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY DR Congo 87¢ $50 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $8 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 64¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 4h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-2.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+2.5) SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $267 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 10¢ $28 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $162 4h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-2.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+2.5) BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $89 4h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-2.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+2.5) BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $6 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $34 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $2 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $1 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 89¢ $30 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $290 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 8¢ $5 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $363 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $217 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $6 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.71 · official $49.71 (match) · 280 history records