Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5dbc…f255 politics 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$278 (-26%) realized −$234 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -89% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -90% what you keep after slip
Net edge-90%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$656now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 153d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$44
other 30% −$219
sports 3% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-90.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -67.5% -70.6% 0% 0% -70.6%
all 3 -89.2% -90.2% 0% 0% -73.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -90.2% 0% -73.2%
10% -91.1% 0% -75.7%
15% -92.0% 0% -78.1%
20% -92.8% 0% -80.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -89% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$83 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$656
Realized−$234
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage153d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $620 $653 +$33 (+5%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $80 $3 −$77 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $324 −$219 -68%
Celtics vs. Bulls Jan 24 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO1) - CBLOL Cup Regular Season Jan 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 58¢ $278 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 7¢ $83 16d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 44¢ $105 38d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 21¢ $105 38d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $98 44d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $226 66d
Celtics vs. Bulls BUY Celtics 59¢ $8 151d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 54¢ $9 153d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO1) - CBLOL Cup Regular Season BUY paiN Gaming 57¢ $23 153d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 54¢ $235 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $655.95 · official $656.07 (match) · 10 history records