Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5D 0x5dca…a0dd other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate21%13W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 81% −$13
politics 10% −$6
other 6% +$27
sports 1% −$87
crypto 1% +$2
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 +4.4% -5.5% 23% 8% -6.7%
≤90d 50 -6.0% -15.0% 22% 12% -12.2%
all 61 -5.2% -14.3% 21% 10% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 10% -9.9%
10% -22.5% 10% -18.6%
15% -29.9% 10% -26.4%
20% -36.8% 10% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses13 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage603d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $11 $0 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 22 $11 +$7 +59%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $71 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $67 $0 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves May 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 11 $80 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $6 +$5 +83%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $73 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $69 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $74 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $74 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $72 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $75 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $75 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $74 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 23 $74 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $78 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$5 +79%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$12 +165%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Kings vs. Nets Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Nuggets vs. Suns Apr 06 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 06 $23 $0 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $23 +$12 +52%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 24 $20 +$13 +63%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 22 $46 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 12h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 13h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 6d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 13d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 22d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 22d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $11 23d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 23d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $13 24d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $13 24d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 28d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 28d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $26 28d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 29d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 29d
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 63¢ $3 29d
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 63¢ $8 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.16 · official $62.16 (match) · 249 history records