Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dcc…619c politics 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$242 (+17%) realized +$418 · open −$176
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$501now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$18
14 days+$28
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% −$122
other 12% +$4
sports 10% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +24.7% +12.9% 100% 100% +12.2%
≤30d 6 +6.5% -3.6% 67% 67% -16.6%
≤90d 6 +6.5% -3.6% 67% 67% -16.6%
all 9 +18.5% +7.2% 78% 67% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.2% 67% -1.0%
10% -3.0% 56% -10.4%
15% -12.4% 44% -19.1%
20% -21.0% 44% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
46.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$30 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$501
Realized+$418
Unrealized−$176
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions9
Markets (closed)9 / 18
History coverage141d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $250 $208 −$42 (-17%)
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $109 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $156 $62 −$94 (-60%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $57 $40 −$17 (-30%)
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $36 $30 −$6 (-17%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $35 $18 −$18 (-50%)
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-19%)
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+35%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $42 +$8 +20%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $31 +$9 +30%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $49 +$11 +22%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $26 −$10 -38%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic May 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $22 +$17 +78%
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 04 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? Feb 28 $35 +$20 +57%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jan 29 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $36 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $47 14h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $49 18h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $37 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $50 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $42 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $40 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $61 4d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $500.57 · official $500.56 (match) · 915 history records