Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:53:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5D 0x5dce…46f0 crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 203d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$1
other 23% +$1
sports 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 10 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage203d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 31 $198 +$1 +0%
USDT depeg in 2025? Dec 31 $101 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 22 $201 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? Dec 19 $100 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Dec 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Dec 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 06 $99 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 8d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $100 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $99 149d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $15 159d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $27 159d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $20 159d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $19 159d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $18 159d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $23 168d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $32 168d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $32 168d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $12 168d
USDT depeg in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $101 175d
USDT depeg in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $101 183d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $101 185d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $101 185d
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? SELL No 99¢ $100 188d
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 188d
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? SELL No 99¢ $100 192d
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 192d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? SELL No 99¢ $101 195d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $101 195d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? SELL No 98¢ $100 196d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $100 197d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $99 201d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $99 203d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.30 · official $99.45 (match) · 32 history records