Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dcf…392e crypto 137 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$887 (-12%) realized −$887 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate69%94W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days−$390
14 days−$390
30 days−$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$893
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +4.7% -5.3% 74% 59% -20.6%
≤30d 69 +4.7% -5.3% 74% 59% -20.6%
≤90d 70 +3.2% -6.6% 73% 59% -20.6%
all 137 -2.1% -11.4% 69% 54% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 54% -21.2%
10% -19.9% 42% -28.7%
15% -27.6% 26% -35.6%
20% -34.7% 17% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$50 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$887
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses94 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage123d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $61 +$11 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$29 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$37 +72%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$50 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$15 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $36 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $56 +$31 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $36 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $76 −$19 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$15 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $76 −$46 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$15 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $72 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $30 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $66 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $34 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 416 history records