Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5D 0x5dcf…75b9 crypto 818 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,307 (+1%) realized +$4,303 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate76%699W / 218L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$514per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 119d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$1,527
sports 15% −$2,160
other 0% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -54.8% -59.1% 8% 4% -99.1%
≤30d 298 -22.4% -29.8% 49% 36% -95.7%
≤90d 502 -14.2% -22.4% 65% 26% -40.7%
all 917 -7.6% -16.4% 76% 19% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 19% -19.9%
10% -24.4% 10% -27.5%
15% ← realistic here -31.7% 4% -34.5%
20% -38.4% 2% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$692) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$353 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$4,303
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses699 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions1
Markets (closed)917 / 818
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$514
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 917 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) Uzbekistan 90¢ 94¢ $90 $94 +$4 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 167 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$43 -309%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $699 −$699 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Team Liquid (BO1) Jun 18 $1,288 −$1,414 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$871 -1947%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $348 −$348 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $504 −$504 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $654 −$654 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $998 −$998 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 +$50 +25495%
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on October 27? Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $993 −$993 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $900 −$900 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $165 −$866 -525%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Team Falcons (BO1) Jun 18 $400 −$400 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $380 −$380 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08? Jun 18 $220 −$220 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $640 −$640 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AZ win on 2025-12-07? Jun 18 $462 −$462 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $534 −$534 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - LCP Regular Seaso Jun 18 $154 −$2,750 -1785%
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in January? Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $800 −$800 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 18 $0 +$42 +48966%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,176 −$1,176 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $3,600 −$3,600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $550 −$550 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-12-14? Jun 18 $700 −$700 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $2,995 −$2,995 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $700 −$700 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $895 −$895 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $211 −$211 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $621 −$621 -100%
Hawks vs. 76ers Jun 18 $241 −$241 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) BUY Uzbekistan 90¢ $90 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 96¢ $118 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 96¢ $93 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $81 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $81 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $80 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $95 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $80 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $80 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.50 · official $94.50 (match) · 3500 history records