Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dd1…b4eb sports 213 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%19W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$3
other 24% −$8
politics 23% −$3
crypto 8% −$1
economics 6% $0
world 5% −$1
culture 5% −$3
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 34 -0.4% -9.9% 6% 0% -9.8%
all 213 -0.1% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses19 / 194
Open positions0
Markets (closed)213 / 213
History coverage163d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 213 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $26 $0 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $206 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $41 −$2 -5%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $105 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 28 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $90 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $59 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 28 $201 $0 -0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 26 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 26 $63 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $174 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 26 $196 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $57 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 25 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $173 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $62 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Mar 21 $31 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Gonzaga win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $29 $0 -1%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 19 $23 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 19 $53 $0 +0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 16 $26 $0 +1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 15 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 14 $165 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $121 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 13 $27 $0 -1%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $26 1h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $26 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $26 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 8d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 15d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $23 16d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $31 23d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $31 23d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 30d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $20 30d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $14 30d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $32 80d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $7 81d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $19 81d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $6 81d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $28 81d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $28 81d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $22 81d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $22 81d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $24 81d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $24 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $30 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $31 82d
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 95¢ $30 82d
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 96¢ $31 82d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $27 82d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $28 82d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $32 82d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $32 82d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $33 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 850 history records