Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:19:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5dd4…ad53 crypto 191 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$601 (+1%) realized +$468 · open +$133
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate81%148W / 34L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,900now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$51
14 days−$439
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$396
world 32% +$572
other 11% −$353
politics 7% −$25
sports 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.7% -5.3% 80% 60% -13.5%
≤30d 20 +4.1% -5.8% 85% 45% -6.5%
≤90d 60 +1.6% -8.1% 77% 33% -7.4%
all 182 +3.8% -6.1% 81% 22% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 22% -8.2%
10% -15.1% 12% -17.0%
15% -23.3% 7% -25.0%
20% -30.8% 5% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$69 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$2,900
Realized+$468
Unrealized+$133
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses148 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)182 / 191
History coverage143d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? No 85¢ 99¢ $702 $820 +$118 (+17%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $680 $679 −$1 (-0%)
Trump meets with Putin by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $570 $597 +$27 (+5%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 82¢ 97¢ $200 $238 +$38 (+19%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 83¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? No 91¢ 87¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 89¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 30¢ $100 $43 −$57 (-57%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $2 −$13 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $96 +$23 +24%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $397 +$103 +26%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $401 −$212 -53%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $150 +$12 +8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 21 $126 +$24 +19%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $251 +$34 +14%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $478 −$421 -88%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $15 +$9 +58%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $201 +$32 +16%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? Jun 04 $400 +$33 +8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $730 +$81 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $201 −$28 -14%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $530 +$23 +4%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $800 +$51 +6%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in May 2026? May 31 $200 +$18 +9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 31 $800 +$69 +9%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? May 31 $90 +$10 +11%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $191 +$18 +9%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 27 $501 −$44 -9%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 27 $300 −$172 -57%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22? May 25 $90 +$5 +6%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $192 −$11 -6%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? May 04 $625 +$111 +18%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $700 −$236 -34%
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026? May 01 $400 +$81 +20%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $100 +$35 +35%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 01 $267 +$33 +12%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30? May 01 $300 +$24 +8%
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30? May 01 $325 +$22 +7%
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30? May 01 $330 +$24 +7%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? May 01 $1,305 −$72 -6%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $700 +$109 +16%
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $274 +$64 +23%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 30 $340 +$18 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 18 $231 +$10 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $628 +$54 +9%
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 15? Apr 14 $120 +$8 +6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 08 $282 +$23 +8%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $200 −$112 -56%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 08 $100 +$37 +37%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $400 +$52 +13%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Apr 07 $100 −$21 -21%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 07 $117 −$17 -14%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $75 −$17 -22%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? Apr 07 $327 +$6 +2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 05 $171 +$1 +1%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? Apr 01 $200 +$21 +10%
Will Iran strike Pakistan in March? Apr 01 $110 +$9 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $119 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 38¢ $55 4d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $96 5d
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 24¢ $79 5d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 10¢ $57 8d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 84¢ $126 10d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 33¢ $50 12d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 49¢ $100 13d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 14d
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? BUY No 91¢ $201 14d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 82¢ $200 14d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 70¢ $289 16d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $397 16d
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY No 67¢ $150 16d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $24 18d
Trump meets with Putin by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $570 22d
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY No 92¢ $552 22d
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $112 22d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 82¢ $328 23d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 23d
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Wisconsin events? BUY No 86¢ $201 23d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $12 25d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $51 25d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $201 25d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 84¢ $251 25d
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 93¢ $150 26d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $251 26d
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 91¢ $401 26d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 72¢ $403 26d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 85¢ $432 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,899.73 · official $2,899.38 (match) · 784 history records