Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:24:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5D 0x5dd8…0943 other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$38 (+4%) realized +$41 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$76
sports 12% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -15.4% -23.5% 33% 33% -24.1%
≤30d 6 -15.4% -23.5% 33% 33% -24.1%
≤90d 6 -15.4% -23.5% 33% 33% -24.1%
all 6 -15.4% -23.5% 33% 33% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 33% -24.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 33% -31.3%
15% -37.5% 33% -38.0%
20% -43.6% 0% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$54 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $45 $43 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $383 −$165 -43%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $110 +$48 +44%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $58 −$39 -67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $111 +$51 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $46 21m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $47 23m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $49 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $49 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $95 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 63¢ $95 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $118 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $118 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $121 4h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 13h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 13h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 13h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $48 13h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $49 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 13h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $9 13h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $162 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $111 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.85 · official $42.85 (match) · 22 history records