Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dd8…f9e3 sports 478 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$576 (+4%) realized +$578 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%241W / 226L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$485
other 6% −$151
crypto 0% +$11
world 0% +$6
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 131 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 45% -15.5%
all 467 -2.6% -11.8% 52% 49% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 49% -7.2%
10% -20.3% 45% -16.1%
15% -28.0% 39% -24.2%
20% -35.0% 34% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$22 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$578
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses241 / 226
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)467 / 478
History coverage134d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 467 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 32¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 42¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 20¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 194 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Capitals vs. Blues: O/U 5.5 Mar 25 $2 +$2 +104%
Kraken vs. Panthers Mar 25 $7 $0 -1%
Golden Knights vs. Jets Mar 25 $6 +$3 +56%
Blue Jackets vs. Flyers Mar 25 $135 −$123 -91%
Kings vs. Flames Mar 25 $8 +$9 +120%
Wild vs. Lightning Mar 25 $14 +$11 +77%
Sharks vs. Predators Mar 25 $110 +$86 +79%
Split: Mili Poljicak vs Felix Gill Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Sao Paulo: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Hugo Dellien Mar 25 $4 +$8 +203%
Split: Matej Dodig vs Christian Langmo Mar 25 $15 +$13 +87%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Mar 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Mar 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5 Mar 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Fortaleza CEIF win on 2026-03-24? Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Split: Lukas Neumayer vs Juan Martin Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5) Mar 24 $4 +$1 +18%
SC Braga vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5 Mar 24 $5 $0 +3%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-03-22? Mar 24 $4 +$2 +43%
Miami Open: Quentin Halys vs Kamil Majchrzak Mar 24 $3 +$3 +82%
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 24 $3 +$5 +186%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Mar 24 $6 +$1 +18%
Senators vs. Rangers Mar 24 $6 +$2 +28%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-03-22? Mar 24 $3 +$8 +300%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Mar 24 $8 +$3 +37%
Naples: Sumit Nagal vs Henri Squire Mar 24 $5 +$8 +163%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-03-23? Mar 24 $7 +$11 +156%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 24 $11 −$5 -42%
Nets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 217.5 Mar 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Nets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 218.5 Mar 24 $73 −$73 -100%
Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 232.5 Mar 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 233.5 Mar 23 $19 −$19 -100%
CD Castellón vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Miami Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniil Medvedev Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-03-23? Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $5 +$7 +156%
FC Nantes vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $6 +$6 +104%
Will NEC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $7 +$10 +142%
Hurricanes vs. Penguins Mar 23 $60 −$39 -66%
Como 1907 vs. Pisa SC: O/U 3.5 Mar 23 $8 +$14 +177%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $11 +$12 +106%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $9 +$15 +170%
Como 1907 vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $21 +$15 +72%
Spread: Nuggets (-8.5) Mar 23 $70 +$76 +108%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $23 −$3 -12%
Sabres vs. Ducks Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Islanders Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Predators vs. Blackhawks Mar 22 $14 −$14 -100%
ACF Fiorentina vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 52m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $10 52m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 53m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $10 53m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 54m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $10 54m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 55m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 56m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $10 57m
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $5 57m
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 58m
Split: Mili Poljicak vs Felix Gill BUY Felix Gill 56¢ $3 83d
Kings vs. Flames BUY Flames 45¢ $4 83d
Kings vs. Flames BUY Flames 46¢ $3 83d
Wild vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 57¢ $5 83d
Wild vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 58¢ $5 83d
Wild vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 55¢ $5 83d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 27¢ $2 83d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 27¢ $3 83d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 28¢ $2 83d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 27¢ $3 83d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 28¢ $3 83d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 26¢ $1 83d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 27¢ $3 83d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 27¢ $3 83d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 27¢ $3 83d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 27¢ $2 83d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 27¢ $2 83d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 27¢ $4 83d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 27¢ $2 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.00 · official $78.00 (match) · 1556 history records