Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dde…91b6 other 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate45%26W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$10
world 28% $0
politics 9% +$6
tech 8% $0
crypto 3% $0
weather 3% −$1
sports 3% $0
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 0% -8.9%
all 58 -1.8% -11.1% 45% 9% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 9% -9.9%
10% -19.6% 3% -18.5%
15% -27.4% 3% -26.4%
20% -34.5% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses26 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage475d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 74¢ 75¢ $50 $50 +$1 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $57 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $17 +$1 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $47 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $60 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $5 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 22 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 23 $15 $0 -1%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Brice Oligui Nguema win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential election? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 12 $1 $0 +18%
Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Masters? Apr 11 $27 $0 -1%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Apr 05 $1 +$1 +82%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Apr 05 $1 $0 -17%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%? Apr 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 03 $25 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 31 $4 $0 -9%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 31 $22 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before April? Mar 31 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 31 $1 $0 -12%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 30 $0 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31? Mar 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $26 $0 +2%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will Kentucky win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $1 $0 -7%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $19 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $50 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $33 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $8 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $4 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $12 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $27 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $7 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $16 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $8 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 3d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $46 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $47 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $12 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $12 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $38 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $48 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.52 · official $50.25 (match) · 212 history records