Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:44:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5D 0x5ddf…0192 sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 714d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2,544 (-30%) realized −$2,538 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate62%24W / 15L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$1,024
crypto 32% −$1,850
other 4% +$329
politics 3% −$12
tech 1% +$8
world 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 3 +2.2% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 14 +4.8% -5.2% 93% 14% -6.7%
all 39 -13.7% -21.9% 62% 28% -37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 28% -37.1%
10% -29.4% 23% -43.1%
15% -36.2% 15% -48.6%
20% -42.5% 13% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$350 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

714d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$2,538
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses24 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage714d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter? Yes 97¢ 86¢ $55 $49 −$6 (-11%)
Waymo IPO before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 98¢ 98¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $51 +$1 +2%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after th Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May? May 28 $44 +$2 +4%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i May 23 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? May 20 $47 $0 +0%
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? May 18 $49 $0 +0%
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? May 15 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 A May 04 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league? May 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Apr 30 $16 +$3 +21%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti Apr 29 $20 $0 +2%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 27 $22 +$6 +28%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $22 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down on August 7? Mar 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 21? Mar 18 $839 −$839 -100%
Cubs vs. Brewers Mar 18 $531 −$531 -100%
Valkyries vs Mystics Mar 18 $750 −$750 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic (BO1) Mar 18 $213 −$213 -100%
Twins vs. Tigers Mar 18 $720 −$720 -100%
Solana Up or Down on August 12? Mar 18 $466 −$466 -100%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 12 $22 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Prestige (BO3) Dec 26 $477 $0 +0%
Mariners vs. Phillies Aug 19 $495 +$495 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 10? Aug 11 $354 +$354 +100%
Cubs vs. Brewers Jul 29 $465 +$484 +104%
XRP Up or Down on May 31? Jun 02 $547 −$547 -100%
Jazz vs. Pacers Apr 07 $390 +$39 +10%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Apr 04 $259 +$61 +24%
Will a #1 seed lose in the Sweet 16? Mar 31 $173 +$327 +189%
Spurs vs. Pistons Mar 26 $250 +$71 +28%
Penguins vs. Golden Knights Mar 18 $255 +$104 +41%
Ethereum above $3,400 on December 27? Jan 21 $114 −$114 -100%
Who will gain more in polls after the debate? Oct 01 $55 +$45 +82%
US inflation >0.1% from June to July 2024? Aug 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Biden COVID free by next Friday? Aug 02 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin above $58,000 on July 19? Jul 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin above $57,000 on July 12? Jul 15 $100 +$22 +22%
Copa America: Argentina vs. Canada Jul 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Felix Protocol FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $27 2h
Waymo IPO before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $1 38h
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 2d
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after th SELL No 96¢ $50 2d
Waymo IPO before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $7 3d
Waymo IPO before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $21 4d
Waymo IPO before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $7 4d
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after th BUY No 95¢ $50 6d
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $29 7d
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $22 7d
Waymo IPO before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $1 17d
SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter? BUY Yes 97¢ $55 25d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May? SELL No 100¢ $46 25d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4 28d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i SELL Yes 95¢ $48 30d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May? BUY No 96¢ $44 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 33d
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 35d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i BUY Yes 95¢ $19 35d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i BUY Yes 95¢ $28 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.43 · official $117.43 (match) · 126 history records