Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5D 0x5de3…2039 politics 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,374 (-1%) realized −$1,375 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%29W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,378per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$16
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$99
other 32% −$777
sports 11% −$509
world 3% −$5
culture 2% −$5
economics 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 31 -4.8% -13.9% 10% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 99 -14.4% -22.5% 6% 2% -10.8%
all 140 -3.3% -12.5% 21% 13% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 13% -10.2%
10% -20.9% 13% -18.8%
15% -28.5% 10% -26.6%
20% -35.6% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,990) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$20 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$345
Realized−$1,375
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses29 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,378
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $344 $345 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $323 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,708 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,148 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 10 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,110 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $9,897 −$9 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,767 −$4 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $73 −$73 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 07 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $6,988 −$6 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,031 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $272 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 02 $335 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $638 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $350 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $2,896 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,801 −$3 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $550 −$1 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 25 $66 +$36 +55%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $549 −$1 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $614 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $5,636 −$6 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $2,457 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,925 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $717 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,511 −$3 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $3,411 −$4 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $2,538 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $5,108 −$5 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 05 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $683 2h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $684 2h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $751 2d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $753 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $685 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $686 2d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $536 3d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $537 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $323 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $323 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $750 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $751 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $740 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $741 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $856 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $857 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $344 11d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,146 11d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,148 11d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,042 11d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,043 12d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,028 12d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,030 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,109 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,110 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $899 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $900 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $816 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $817 14d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,103 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $345.08 · official $345.08 (match) · 475 history records