Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:17:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5de5…eea0 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$421 (-17%) realized −$417 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$436
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -18.2% -26.0% 41% 41% -26.8%
≤30d 17 -18.2% -26.0% 41% 41% -26.8%
≤90d 17 -18.2% -26.0% 41% 41% -26.8%
all 17 -18.2% -26.0% 41% 41% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 41% -26.8%
10% -33.1% 41% -33.8%
15% -39.6% 41% -40.2%
20% -45.5% 35% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$109 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized−$417
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $118 $119 +$1 (+1%)
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ 58¢ $120 $115 −$5 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Doosan Bears Jun 27 $101 +$69 +69%
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Muchova (+1.5) Jun 27 $100 −$25 -25%
Set 2 Winner: Muchova vs Osaka Jun 27 $47 −$3 -7%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos Jun 27 $101 −$54 -53%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $249 +$175 +70%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $242 −$238 -98%
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Petr Nesterov Jun 26 $95 +$82 +86%
Set 2 Winner: Draper vs Humbert Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 26 $101 +$61 +60%
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova Jun 26 $17 −$17 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $157 −$155 -99%
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 26 $199 +$80 +40%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $113 +$86 +76%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $257 −$253 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $149 +$108 +73%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $151 −$149 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Doosan Bears SELL Doosan Bears 99¢ $171 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $119 3h
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Muchova (+1.5) SELL Muchova 50¢ $75 3h
Set 2 Winner: Muchova vs Osaka SELL Osaka 49¢ $44 3h
Set 2 Winner: Muchova vs Osaka BUY Osaka 51¢ $47 3h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos SELL NC Dinos 29¢ $47 3h
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Muchova (+1.5) BUY Muchova 65¢ $100 4h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 60¢ $101 4h
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 58¢ $101 4h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ $121 4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $242 19h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $249 19h
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Petr Nesterov SELL Sandro Kopp 100¢ $177 19h
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Petr Nesterov BUY Sandro Kopp 53¢ $95 20h
Set 2 Winner: Draper vs Humbert BUY Draper 54¢ $101 20h
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) SELL Marozsan 99¢ $162 20h
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Matias Soto 54¢ $101 21h
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) BUY Marozsan 61¢ $101 21h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 52¢ $17 21h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $157 35h
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Bruno Fernandez SELL Nicolas Kicker 100¢ $279 35h
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Bruno Fernandez BUY Nicolas Kicker 71¢ $199 36h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $199 36h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $113 38h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $257 39h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $257 39h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $149 41h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $151 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.92 · official $241.79 · 29 history records