Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:33:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5D 0x5de7…9be0 sports 696 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$239 (-1%) realized −$239 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate73%505W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$8
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$227
other 2% −$6
crypto 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -5.9% -14.8% 48% 45% -8.8%
≤30d 112 -8.3% -17.0% 52% 43% -8.6%
≤90d 695 -2.3% -11.6% 73% 26% -10.8%
all 695 -2.3% -11.6% 73% 26% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 26% -10.8%
10% -20.0% 21% -19.3%
15% -27.8% 18% -27.1%
20% -34.8% 16% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$239
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses505 / 190
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)695 / 696
History coverage88d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 695 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $1 +$2 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -58%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $13 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 9h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 9h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 36¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 2210 history records