Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5D
0x5de9…3b6c
politics · 35 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$9 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage262d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 0 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $28 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 20 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $46 $0 -0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 17 $17 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Oct 12 $19 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? Oct 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 02 $17 $0 +1%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 02 $12 −$9 -72%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $17 $0 -0%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 01 $27 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 28 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $4 $0 +6%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 36% +$1
other 22% −$9
sports 17% $0
world 15% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $27 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $27 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 21h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 21h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 22h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $11 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $13 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $28 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 42h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 42h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $23 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $27 3d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 237d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 237d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $18 239d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $18 239d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $17 239d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 239d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 239d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 239d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 242d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $17 243d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 243d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 243d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 243d
Will Solana reach $350 in October? SELL No 98¢ $19 244d
Will Solana reach $350 in October? BUY No 99¢ $19 244d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.7%
all 35 -3.0% -12.2% 37% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -10.6%
10% -20.6% 0% -19.2%
15% -28.3% 0% -27.0%
20% -35.3% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records