Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:11:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5D 0x5df0…4adf sports 336 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate58%194W / 142L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$472per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$136
7 days−$50
14 days+$43
30 days+$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$52
sports 19% −$211
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +6.7% -3.5% 88% 21% -9.9%
≤30d 59 +12.7% +2.0% 75% 24% -9.0%
≤90d 135 -1.1% -10.5% 59% 26% -9.6%
all 336 +1.3% -8.3% 58% 22% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 22% -9.5%
10% -17.1% 18% -18.2%
15% -25.1% 14% -26.1%
20% -32.4% 11% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$999) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses194 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions0
Markets (closed)336 / 336
History coverage228d
Avg bet$472
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 336 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 18 $193 +$6 +3%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China Jun 18 $42 +$1 +2%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $848 −$232 -27%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $992 +$19 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $808 +$2 +0%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 17 $162 +$8 +5%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $493 +$61 +12%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 15 $9 +$2 +23%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $31 $0 -1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $1,065 +$62 +6%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $989 +$10 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $41 +$4 +10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $996 +$30 +3%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 14 $896 +$2 +0%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 14 $90 +$10 +11%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $815 +$7 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $49 +$9 +18%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $39 +$3 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $10 +$8 +82%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $478 +$24 +5%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 12 $896 +$34 +4%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 12 $1,390 −$138 -10%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 12 $583 +$20 +4%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman Jun 10 $48 +$1 +2%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: United Arab Emirates vs Malaysia Jun 10 $4 −$2 -50%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs Japan Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs Nepal Jun 10 $5 −$2 -30%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $10 +$17 +165%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Saudi Arabia Jun 09 $1,004 +$12 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Japan vs Thailand Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Oman vs Philippines Jun 07 $110 +$9 +9%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Myanmar vs Thailand Jun 07 $620 +$12 +2%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bahrain vs Mongolia Jun 06 $1,113 −$7 -1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 06 $5 +$31 +592%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Kuwait vs Singapore Jun 06 $81 $0 +0%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Malaysia vs Indonesia Jun 06 $93 +$14 +15%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Bahrain vs Singapore Jun 05 $1,000 +$18 +2%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies Jun 03 $13 −$3 -23%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $51 +$5 +9%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bhutan vs Hong Kong, China Jun 03 $1,111 +$17 +2%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bahrain vs Myanmar Jun 03 $139 +$17 +12%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Singapore Jun 03 $132 +$5 +4%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Malaysia vs Kuwait Jun 03 $9 −$1 -10%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $10 +$4 +45%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $9 +$4 +46%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $39 $0 +1%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan May 31 $15 −$8 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi SELL Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 100¢ $199 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 97¢ $48 3h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 97¢ $49 3h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 97¢ $49 3h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 97¢ $49 3h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China SELL Hong Kong, China 86¢ $43 4h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Brazil 100¢ $382 4h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 90¢ $180 5h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 90¢ $5 5h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 90¢ $6 5h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 86¢ $147 5h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 24¢ $96 5h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 86¢ $173 5h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 92¢ $23 5h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 95¢ $7 5h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 93¢ $38 5h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 95¢ $95 5h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 95¢ $32 5h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 87¢ $100 5h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 87¢ $21 5h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 90¢ $73 5h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 90¢ $36 5h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 63¢ $2 7h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 68¢ $10 7h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 55¢ $16 8h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 69¢ $1 9h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 69¢ $19 9h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China BUY Hong Kong, China 83¢ $42 13h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL South Africa 100¢ $898 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL South Africa 100¢ $101 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2000 history records