Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:00:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5df6…b9a7 weather 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$64 (-4%) realized −$61 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%45W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$16
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% +$3
sports 25% −$23
crypto 11% −$81
other 10% −$12
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 50% -4.7%
≤30d 96 -44.6% -49.9% 20% 19% -24.7%
≤90d 145 -22.5% -29.9% 31% 29% -15.8%
all 145 -22.5% -29.9% 31% 29% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 29% -15.8%
10% -36.6% 26% -23.9%
15% -42.7% 23% -31.2%
20% -48.3% 21% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$7 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses45 / 100
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)145 / 150
History coverage76d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 28? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 27? Jun 27 $15 +$16 +101%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 11? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$19 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $15 +$14 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$4 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$15 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? Jun 12 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$13 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 10? Jun 11 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 8? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 9? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 8? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 8? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 8? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 9? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 8? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 8? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 8? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 9? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 8? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10? Jun 10 $31 −$14 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 +$15 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$32 +206%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 10 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 9? Jun 09 $26 +$52 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 9? Jun 08 $10 −$7 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 7? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 28? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 28h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 27? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 28h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 9d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 13d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 14d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 14d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 14d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 14d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $29 14d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 14d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? SELL Yes 41¢ $11 15d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 15d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 15d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 15d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 51¢ $15 15d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $31 15d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 15d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? SELL Yes 41¢ $15 15d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 16d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 16d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 16d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? SELL Yes 97¢ $28 16d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 16d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 16d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 17d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 17d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 10? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.77 · official $19.77 (match) · 342 history records