Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5D 0x5df7…080b other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$124 (+11%) realized +$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%19W / 30L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$53
14 days+$107
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$131
crypto 9% +$4
sports 8% −$24
world 2% −$4
politics 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -22.3% -29.7% 36% 36% +0.3%
≤30d 39 -17.8% -25.6% 38% 36% +1.4%
≤90d 39 -17.8% -25.6% 38% 36% +1.4%
all 49 -16.6% -24.5% 39% 37% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 37% +1.3%
10% -31.7% 37% -8.4%
15% -38.3% 35% -17.2%
20% -44.4% 24% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$7 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses19 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)49 / 58
History coverage197d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+27%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-13%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 23¢ 3¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $35 +$25 +70%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $9 −$8 -84%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 −$2 -7%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$18 +46%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 +$11 +262%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 +$36 +60%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -27%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$32 +52%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -71%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$29 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$15 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$4 -7%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$23 +38%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$37 -73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $29 +$32 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? Jun 12 $10 +$13 +133%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2? Feb 02 $4 +$3 +64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? Feb 02 $5 −$3 -57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3? Feb 02 $4 −$4 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $19 +$7 +35%
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 St Jan 28 $16 +$8 +47%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 31 $2 −$2 -85%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 26 $12 +$9 +74%
Will 'Kingdom Come: Deliverance II' win Game of the Year in the 2025 S Dec 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Dec 13 $10 −$3 -27%
Will 'Arc Raiders' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? Dec 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 7h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 7h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 10h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 10h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 69¢ $28 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $44 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 80¢ $43 41h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 67¢ $10 43h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 57¢ $19 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 4d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.76 · official $164.76 (match) · 124 history records