Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:47:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5D 0x5dfa…8c1d crypto 661 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$951 (-5%) realized −$643 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate63%417W / 243L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day31.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$59
14 days+$59
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$708
other 1% +$56
sports 0% +$6
world 0% +$2
weather 0% −$3
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +20.8% +9.3% 62% 62% +18.0%
≤30d 16 +20.8% +9.3% 62% 62% +18.0%
≤90d 260 -19.5% -27.2% 45% 33% -24.0%
all 660 -4.3% -13.4% 63% 41% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 41% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 20% -20.6%
15% -29.2% 7% -28.3%
20% -36.2% 5% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$643
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses417 / 243
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)660 / 661
History coverage107d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day31.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 660 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 18¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Under 72¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$15 +74%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$11 -66%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +63%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -22%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$16 +320%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$34 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $11 +$4 +32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$31 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 13 $16 −$11 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 13 $41 −$14 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 13 $29 −$17 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 13 $15 −$13 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 13 $43 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 12 $11 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 12 $12 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 10 $7 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 10 $28 +$12 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 10 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 10 $9 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 10 $33 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 10 $28 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 08 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 08 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 08 $25 −$12 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 08 $10 −$6 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 08 $9 +$6 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 08 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 08 $12 +$8 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 08 $23 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 08 $15 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 08 $15 −$14 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 08 $10 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 08 $32 +$7 +21%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 08 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 08 $59 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 08 $26 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 08 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 08 $13 −$6 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 08 $32 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 08 $23 −$9 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $35 9m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 72¢ $3 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $16 11h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 64¢ $17 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 77¢ $24 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 26h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $10 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 27h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $22 29h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $5 30h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 74¢ $15 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 55¢ $11 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $15 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.25 · official $3.25 (match) · 3500 history records