Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5D 0x5dff…bdfd sports 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,164 (+17%) realized +$1,164 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$1,099
14 days+$1,099
30 days+$1,305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$929
other 31% +$315
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +15.0% +4.1% 64% 57% +6.2%
≤30d 30 +39.5% +26.2% 63% 57% +8.8%
≤90d 30 +39.5% +26.2% 63% 57% +8.8%
all 41 +17.6% +6.4% 56% 46% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 46% +7.6%
10% -3.8% 37% -2.7%
15% -13.1% 32% -12.1%
20% -21.6% 29% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$41 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$1,164
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage204d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $391 +$77 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$35 +69%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $31 −$2 -6%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 +$38 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $111 +$36 +33%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$38 -75%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$31 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $122 +$267 +218%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $202 +$136 +67%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$63 +62%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$90 +177%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $1 $0 -40%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $914 +$155 +17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $826 +$88 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $999 +$54 +5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $903 +$94 +10%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $590 +$356 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $192 −$190 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 +$22 +107%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $140 +$31 +22%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $43 −$2 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$42 +41%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $14 −$14 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $100 −$98 -98%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $35 +$304 +863%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Dec 14 $5 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 3 Winner Dec 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Yandex (BO1) Nov 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Tidebound (BO1) Nov 26 $5 +$1 +28%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) Nov 25 $5 −$5 -93%
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Tearlaments (BO1) Nov 25 $5 +$10 +191%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Team Tidebound (BO1) Nov 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 25 $28 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 20m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 60¢ $51 37m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $468 55m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 74¢ $39 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $85 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 91¢ $251 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Over 43¢ $29 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $51 35h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 35h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 35h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $147 46h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $111 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 12¢ $13 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $81 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $390 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 13¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 19¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $339 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 38¢ $102 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $202 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $164 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 61¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $141 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 35¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,069 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.53 · official $99.53 · 80 history records