Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e01…3dd6 weather 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$127 (-6%) realized −$126 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate27%39W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day35.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$297
14 days−$309
30 days−$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$260
weather 11% −$46
politics 4% +$3
other 3% −$5
world 2% −$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -18.9% -26.6% 27% 19% -22.0%
≤30d 146 -18.2% -26.0% 27% 19% -21.8%
≤90d 146 -18.2% -26.0% 27% 19% -21.8%
all 146 -18.2% -26.0% 27% 19% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.0% 19% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -33.1% 15% -29.3%
15% -39.6% 13% -36.1%
20% -45.5% 12% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$126
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses39 / 107
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)146 / 148
History coverage9d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? No 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $105 −$102 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $104 +$118 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $103 +$95 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $102 +$35 +34%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first rou Jun 26 $1 $0 -54%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -56%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 26 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 28? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima Jun 26 $2 −$1 -28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 26 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 27? Jun 26 $2 $0 +6%
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Jun 26 $2 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 26 $2 $0 +8%
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Jun 26 $8 $0 +3%
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Jun 26 $6 +$1 +14%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 26 $5 $0 -2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 26 $13 +$1 +4%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? Jun 26 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 28? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 28? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 26 $0 $0 +69%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 26 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $2 +$6 +259%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 30? Jun 25 $0 $0 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? Jun 24 $3 +$1 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $3 +$3 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 25? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 25? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 25? Jun 24 $0 $0 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 25? Jun 24 $0 $0 -95%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 22-28? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -56%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 24? Jun 24 $3 +$3 +102%
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? Jun 24 $2 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $74 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $208 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first rou SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 65¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima SELL Yes 7¢ $2 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 27? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? SELL Yes 79¢ $2 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 43¢ $2 2h
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 2h
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? SELL No 80¢ $4 2h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $5 2h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 2h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 337 history records