Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e02…1a9a other 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 243L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$44
sports 24% −$21
politics 6% −$4
crypto 6% −$4
economics 5% −$8
culture 5% −$7
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 188 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 255 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)255 / 255
History coverage133d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 255 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $293 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $506 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $284 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $450 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $122 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $217 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $159 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $175 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $373 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $357 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $478 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $328 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $757 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $270 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $76 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $244 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $407 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $368 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $176 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $311 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $238 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $467 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $211 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $382 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $303 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $65 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $150 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $383 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $267 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $395 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $213 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $200 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 31 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $68 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 2h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $59 4h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $60 6h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 10h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 11h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $60 13h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $60 15h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $12 16h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $12 18h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 20h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 22h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $60 22h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $60 24h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 25h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 26h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 28h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 30h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 31h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 32h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 37h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 39h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $60 40h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $61 42h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $3 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $61 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1384 history records