Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:50:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5E
0x5e04…864c
other · 75 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$252 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$253 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$308
Realized+$253
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses12 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)66 / 75
History coverage4d
Avg bet$603
Trades / day916.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 11 History 66 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$253
7 days+$253
14 days+$253
30 days+$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $754 +$31 +4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $3,065 +$30 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 12 $4,728 +$20 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2,810 −$2 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $1,165 +$28 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $402 +$36 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $761 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $499 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $90 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $673 +$28 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $496 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $325 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $668 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 12 $279 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $88 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $323 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $159 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1,037 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $264 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $399 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $2,330 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $3,146 −$2 -0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 12 $86 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,221 +$38 +3%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $489 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $146 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $154 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $186 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $315 $0 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $97 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $30 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $148 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $29 +$30 +104%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $1,541 −$1 -0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $1,010 $0 -0%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $399 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $690 +$22 +3%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 34% +$93
world 27% +$42
politics 13% +$26
tech 13% −$3
economics 10% +$66
crypto 3% +$30
sports 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $30 6m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $36 13m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $39 15m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $36 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $101 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $10 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $91 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $32 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $32 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $51 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $69 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $51 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $69 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $19 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $77 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $19 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $13 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $64 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $77 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $32 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $45 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $77 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $77 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $17 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $17 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $17 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $13 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +1.9% -7.8% 18% 2% -8.8%
≤30d 66 +1.9% -7.8% 18% 2% -8.8%
≤90d 66 +1.9% -7.8% 18% 2% -8.8%
all 66 +1.9% -7.8% 18% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover916.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 2% -8.8%
10% -16.6% 2% -17.6%
15% ← realistic here -24.6% 2% -25.5%
20% -32.0% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.19 · official $307.40 (match) · 3500 history records