Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5E 0x5e05…d5cd other 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$109 (-2%) realized −$107 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate84%32W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$810now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 31% $0
other 20% +$5
politics 17% +$5
tech 17% −$2
world 11% +$1
crypto 4% −$111
weather 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 13 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 26 -3.3% -12.5% 96% 0% -9.4%
all 38 -2.0% -11.3% 84% 3% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 3% -11.8%
10% -19.8% 3% -20.2%
15% -27.6% 3% -27.9%
20% -34.7% 3% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$30 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$810
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses32 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage145d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $812 $810 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 Jun 17 $820 +$5 +1%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 19? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on May 18? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 7? May 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 20 May 18 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 8? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 6? May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 5? Apr 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on April 3? Apr 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 3? Apr 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C or below on April 3? Apr 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 23? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 24? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 23? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 19 Mar 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 19? Mar 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 02 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jan 24 $114 −$114 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 24 $790 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 24 $549 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Jan 24 $595 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 23 $2 +$3 +104%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 23 $131 $0 +0%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute Jan 23 $172 +$3 +2%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute Jan 23 $59 +$2 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 23 $166 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 23 $389 +$1 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 23 $184 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o SELL No 98¢ $13 2m
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 98¢ $465 1h
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 97¢ $361 1h
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 BUY No 99¢ $820 33h
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 29d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 29d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 8? BUY No 93¢ $5 42d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 7? BUY No 98¢ $5 42d
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 42d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 20 BUY No 93¢ $5 42d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $5 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $5 73d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 5? BUY No 100¢ $5 73d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $5 75d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $5 75d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C or below on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $5 75d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $6 86d
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $5 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $7 86d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $7 89d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 19 BUY No 100¢ $5 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $22 135d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $21 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $810.33 · official $809.91 (match) · 107 history records