Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e05…964f other 263 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%68W / 185L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$19
14 days+$6
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$41
sports 36% +$7
crypto 7% −$7
weather 2% +$2
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +6.5% -3.6% 22% 20% +8.9%
≤30d 110 -22.1% -29.5% 15% 15% -17.7%
≤90d 202 -21.0% -28.5% 19% 17% -11.4%
all 253 -6.7% -15.5% 27% 24% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 24% -3.1%
10% -23.6% 21% -12.4%
15% -31.0% 19% -20.9%
20% -37.8% 18% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses68 / 185
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)253 / 263
History coverage104d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 36¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? Yes 19¢ 28¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 +$17 +473%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $3 +$8 +246%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win Jun 17 $4 +$25 +617%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +287%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 +$8 +786%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +89%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $2 +$3 +146%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -74%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +550%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 22m
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 6h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 6h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. BUY 14¢ $1 7h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Co BUY 25¢ $1 7h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia ( BUY 28¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 10h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina BUY 8¢ $2 28h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win BUY 14¢ $2 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 28¢ $2 28h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win BUY 13¢ $1 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 29¢ $1 29h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina BUY 8¢ $1 29h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win BUY 13¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 40h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 42h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 42h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 42h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 42h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.02 · official $17.02 · 564 history records