Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e07…2f7e other 52 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-21%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%8W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day78.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$18
sports 31% +$32
crypto 29% −$27
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -9.6% -18.2% 16% 16% -21.1%
≤30d 49 -9.6% -18.2% 16% 16% -21.1%
≤90d 49 -9.6% -18.2% 16% 16% -21.1%
all 49 -9.6% -18.2% 16% 16% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 16% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 16% -28.7%
15% -33.2% 14% -35.6%
20% -39.8% 12% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×4.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses8 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day78.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ali Al Hamadi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -41%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Abdallah Al Fakhori: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Jun 16 $1 +$14 +1402%
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 16 $4 +$7 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 $0 -9%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $2 $0 -21%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 $0 -5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 +$5 +37%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 +$7 +101%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +307%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$9 +344%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ali Al Hamadi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 5d
Abdallah Al Fakhori: 1+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records