Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5E 0x5e07…fe28 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$51
14 days+$72
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$33
crypto 3% +$1
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -7.9% -16.7% 41% 41% +6.0%
≤30d 39 -2.3% -11.6% 44% 41% -4.2%
≤90d 39 -2.3% -11.6% 44% 41% -4.2%
all 39 -2.3% -11.6% 44% 41% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 41% -4.2%
10% -20.0% 41% -13.4%
15% -27.8% 36% -21.8%
20% -34.8% 31% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 44
History coverage17d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $80 +$56 +71%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $8 +$6 +70%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $26 −$2 -6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 −$5 -27%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $19 +$15 +79%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $21 −$3 -14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$7 +145%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $21 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $18 +$8 +47%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$8 +27%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $17 −$11 -63%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$6 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 19 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 +$5 +74%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$21 +202%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 −$5 -25%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $35 −$19 -53%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 −$10 -46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 +$10 +47%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $136 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $14 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $24 40h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $24 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 40h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 42h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $18 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U BUY 8¢ $2 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 95¢ $12 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Switze BUY 9¢ $2 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 5d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.63 · official $33.63 (match) · 103 history records