Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:49:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e08…b2f5 crypto 187 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$162 (-9%) realized −$151 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%62W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$300
other 15% +$17
sports 3% −$2
economics 2% −$12
world 2% −$5
politics 1% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -3.1% -12.3% 25% 21% -10.5%
≤30d 82 +6.8% -3.4% 32% 29% -1.5%
≤90d 122 +1.2% -8.5% 31% 29% -9.7%
all 185 -3.3% -12.5% 34% 30% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 30% -24.4%
10% -20.9% 26% -31.6%
15% -28.6% 23% -38.2%
20% -35.6% 19% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$151
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses62 / 123
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)185 / 187
History coverage170d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? No 56¢ 26¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-53%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Down 40¢ 18¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$12 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $12 +$44 +366%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$15 +606%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$1 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $37 −$12 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $17 −$14 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$6 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$28 +281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$2 +206%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$13 +119%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $15 −$8 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $39 −$18 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$1 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $30 −$8 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $12 −$10 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $11 −$10 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 40¢ $10 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 56¢ $12 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL No 83¢ $17 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 45¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 96¢ $56 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 11¢ $1 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL No 85¢ $18 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 18¢ $12 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 12¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 33¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? SELL No 59¢ $18 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 48¢ $17 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.25 · official $9.56 (match) · 463 history records