Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5E 0x5e0a…2d9b crypto 1201 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,480 (+10%) realized +$1,483 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%614W / 533L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$351
7 days+$458
14 days+$463
30 days+$1,011
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,631
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 264 +11.4% +0.8% 59% 59% +12.1%
≤30d 779 +2.2% -7.6% 54% 54% +3.9%
≤90d 1147 +1.2% -8.4% 54% 54% +0.5%
all 1147 +1.2% -8.4% 54% 54% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 54% +0.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 54% -9.1%
15% -25.2% 54% -17.9%
20% -32.5% 54% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$1,483
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses614 / 533
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1147 / 1201
History coverage58d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET Up 52¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 487 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$7 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$7 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +92%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +86%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$6 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$4 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$6 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$3 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$6 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$3 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$6 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$3 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$3 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$6 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$4 +87%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$3 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$7 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$3 +84%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$42 +80%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET Jun 25 $211 +$180 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7PM ET Jun 25 $12 +$11 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 6PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$4 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $8 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 13h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.90 · official $30.76 (match) · 2261 history records