Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e10…1186 other 253 markets active 0h ago coverage 356d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$616 (-1%) realized −$591 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate59%143W / 100L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$391per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$365
7 days−$1,738
14 days−$1,222
30 days−$1,136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$1,420
world 28% −$751
sports 18% −$1,514
politics 5% −$21
tech 2% +$84
weather 2% −$237
culture 1% +$26
economics 1% −$18
crypto 1% +$72
finance 1% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -17.2% -25.1% 52% 19% -26.3%
≤30d 50 +0.8% -8.8% 68% 34% -16.1%
≤90d 151 -4.4% -13.5% 62% 40% -14.0%
all 243 -5.2% -14.2% 59% 33% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 33% -10.5%
10% -22.5% 17% -19.0%
15% -29.9% 9% -26.9%
20% -36.8% 5% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$91 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

356d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized−$591
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses143 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions8
Markets (closed)243 / 253
History coverage356d
Avg bet$391
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 24¢ 32¢ $48 $64 +$16 (+33%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 34¢ 20¢ $70 $40 −$30 (-43%)
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 52¢ $33 $36 +$2 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $17 $23 +$6 (+34%)
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 42¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 27¢ 50¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+83%)
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $499 −$362 -73%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $110 +$2 +2%
Will João Neves score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $62 −$48 -77%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $378 +$133 +35%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $315 −$87 -28%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $325 −$3 -1%
GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launch Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $403 +$104 +26%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $902 +$55 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $31 +$2 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1,099 −$467 -42%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1,100 +$118 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1,270 −$520 -41%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,180 −$596 -50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $344 +$1 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $551 +$50 +9%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $103 −$34 -34%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $253 +$46 +18%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 13 $257 +$18 +7%
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $43 −$17 -40%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $551 +$37 +7%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $556 +$93 +17%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $73 +$34 +47%
Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $514 +$227 +44%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $12 +$11 +88%
Central African Republic vs. Togo: Draw at halftime? Jun 05 $11 +$9 +79%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Central African Republic win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $80 +$14 +17%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $35 +$14 +39%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $40 +$2 +6%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $228 +$69 +30%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $316 +$4 +1%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $320 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $300 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 01 $111 +$3 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $119 +$77 +64%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 01 $249 +$52 +21%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $308 +$4 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $31 −$27 -86%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $130 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $256 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $306 −$175 -57%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $474 +$35 +8%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5 May 24 $444 +$105 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $86 +$4 +5%
Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5 May 22 $274 $0 +0%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $320 +$5 +2%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in May 22 $11 +$2 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 5m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 20¢ $137 41m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 48m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $116 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $383 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 45¢ $112 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $105 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $511 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $47 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $14 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $278 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $22 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $9 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $3 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $5 4h
Will João Neves score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $9 9h
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $5 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under $0 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under $0 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $88 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 95¢ $228 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $44 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $26 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $157 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $322 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $89 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $236 36h
GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launch SELL No 42¢ $5 38h
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $48 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.85 · official $171.85 (match) · 2477 history records