Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:45:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5E 0x5e14…c3a5 other 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%34W / 38L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$2
world 30% +$3
politics 15% $0
crypto 8% +$4
economics 5% $0
finance 3% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.3% -8.3% 83% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 6 +1.3% -8.3% 83% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 6 +1.3% -8.3% 83% 0% -8.3%
all 72 +0.8% -8.8% 47% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 3% -8.7%
10% -17.5% 1% -17.4%
15% -25.5% 1% -25.4%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×5.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.69 per $1 lost it wins $7.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses34 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage457d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $39 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $72 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $47 +$2 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Mar 03 $1 $0 -5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $1 $0 -14%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Sep 02 $18 $0 -1%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Aug 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $9 $0 -1%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Aug 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 10 $5 $0 -4%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 10 $18 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 10 $7 +$3 +48%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jul 10 $2 $0 -9%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 09 $14 $0 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 07 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $40 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $39 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $36 20h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $25 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $10 24h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $39 26h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $38 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $39 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $39 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $17 44h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $0 44h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $15 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $16 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $24 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $33 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $34 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $34 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $20 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 304d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? SELL No 99¢ $17 305d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY No 98¢ $17 305d
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $17 305d
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $17 305d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $16 305d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $16 305d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.62 · official $0.00 (match) · 218 history records