Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5E 0x5e14…7c43 crypto 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$4,396 (-5%) realized −$4,412 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%155W / 94L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$551now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$391
7 days+$423
14 days+$48
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 54% −$2,920
crypto 31% −$1,290
other 10% −$1,896
sports 4% +$671
culture 2% +$1,028
tech 0% −$18
politics 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +28.0% +15.8% 48% 42% +9.9%
≤30d 45 +10.7% +0.1% 42% 38% -4.0%
≤90d 50 +3.7% -6.2% 38% 34% -25.0%
all 249 +4.9% -5.1% 62% 56% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 56% -14.0%
10% -14.2% 24% -22.3%
15% -22.5% 22% -29.8%
20% -30.1% 20% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$152 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$551
Realized−$4,412
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses155 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)249 / 252
History coverage100d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 14¢ 14¢ $417 $428 +$11 (+3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 55¢ 56¢ $63 $64 +$1 (+2%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 52¢ $55 $59 +$4 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $117 +$98 +84%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $77 +$71 +93%
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 17 $95 −$18 -20%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $54 +$63 +118%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 17 $101 +$41 +41%
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? Jun 17 $33 +$10 +30%
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $14 +$9 +69%
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $37 +$125 +342%
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $24 +$16 +67%
Will Giuliano Simeone be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 16 $68 −$62 -91%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $33 +$36 +110%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $282 −$7 -2%
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $68 −$31 -45%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $176 +$26 +15%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $154 +$11 +7%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $253 +$38 +15%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $149 −$25 -17%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$8 -8%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $30 −$6 -21%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $30 −$11 -37%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $35 −$9 -25%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 14 $20 −$11 -54%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 14 $24 −$8 -32%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Jun 14 $30 −$24 -80%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $21 −$1 -5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $21 +$28 +134%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 12 $25 −$3 -10%
Will Antoine Semenyo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $23 +$36 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $52 −$20 -37%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $39 −$3 -7%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $42 +$59 +139%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $7 −$6 -97%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 07 $31 −$25 -81%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $148 −$145 -98%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $49 −$9 -19%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Will voter turnout be 60%+ in the first round of the 2026 Colombian pr Jun 04 $21 −$21 -99%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 04 $272 −$74 -27%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $32 +$15 +47%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $27 +$35 +126%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 30 $46 +$50 +108%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $1,100 −$670 -61%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs Mar 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $114 −$106 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $1,771 −$392 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $2,498 −$454 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $64 30m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $215 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $148 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $77 3h
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr SELL No 47¢ $77 3h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $117 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $117 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $56 16h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $43 16h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $54 16h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $201 16h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Messi 84¢ $143 16h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? SELL Yes 42¢ $43 16h
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $23 16h
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $97 21h
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 21h
Will Giuliano Simeone be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 28h
Will Giuliano Simeone be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 30h
Will Giuliano Simeone be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 36h
Will Giuliano Simeone be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $13 36h
Will Giuliano Simeone be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $54 36h
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY No 57¢ $95 46h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $184 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY 47¢ $33 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 59¢ $275 2d
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $37 2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Belgium 100¢ $202 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $282 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $121 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $162 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $551.35 · official $550.78 (match) · 1581 history records