Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:22:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5E
0x5e18…aaf2
weather · 46 markets active 3h ago
0.5score
−$194 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$33 · open −$227
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$591
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$227
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses31 / 6
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions9
Markets (closed)37 / 46
Avg bet$103
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 9 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 50¢ 94¢ $258 $485 +$227 (+88%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 50¢ 6¢ $258 $31 −$227 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C or below on May 28? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 28? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on May 27? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $565 −$15 -3%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 26 $608 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 37.5 on May 22, 2026? May 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Google be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Meta AI - Assistant & Glasses be #1 Free App in the US Apple App May 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 15? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 15? May 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on May 15? May 15 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or below on May May 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 45°F or below on May 10? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on May 9? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on May 9? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C or below on May 9? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on April 28? May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on April 28? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 28? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C or below on April 28? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $460 −$2 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $421 +$1 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $695 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $243 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $364 +$4 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $50 +$5 +9%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $320 −$2 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 12 $155 −$12 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 10 $47 +$53 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 46% −$11
other 24% $0
sports 13% −$10
world 12% −$227
weather 4% +$1
crypto 1% +$53
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 16d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C or below on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 16d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $7 16d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $8 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 16d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma BUY No 100¢ $7 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 40¢ $224 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $56 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $33 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $7 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $3 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $79 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $93 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $16 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $52 17d
Will Google be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Meta AI - Assistant & Glasses be #1 Free App in the US Apple App BUY No 100¢ $9 25d
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 37.5 on May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 20 +0.2% -9.3% 90% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 35 +0.5% -9.1% 86% 0% -9.7%
all 37 +3.3% -6.6% 84% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 3% -8.8%
10% -15.5% 3% -17.5%
15% -23.7% 3% -25.5%
20% -31.2% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $591.44 · official $591.44 (match) · 249 history records