Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e18…66e5 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$458per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,482
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 43% -32.8%
≤30d 14 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 43% -32.8%
≤90d 14 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 43% -32.8%
all 14 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 43% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 43% -32.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 36% -39.2%
15% -34.0% 36% -45.1%
20% -40.5% 21% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$457 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$458
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $431 −$400 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $321 +$179 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$39 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $856 −$800 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $805 +$374 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $193 +$25 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $999 −$930 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $161 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $655 +$290 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $968 −$500 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $218 −$200 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $328 −$328 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $327 +$629 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $109 +$211 +193%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $431 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $500 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $321 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $41 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $247 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $610 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1,180 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $297 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $300 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $217 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $193 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $188 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $811 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $168 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $945 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $237 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $418 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $531 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $470 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $425 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $218 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $956 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $327 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $321 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records