Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5E 0x5e19…d917 sports 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$103 (-2%) realized −$83 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate67%66W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$690now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$87
14 days+$113
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$213
other 36% +$110
tech 22% −$19
crypto 2% +$8
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -2.6% -11.9% 76% 52% -6.0%
≤30d 63 -2.2% -11.5% 75% 54% -7.7%
≤90d 95 -6.4% -15.3% 68% 47% -11.6%
all 98 -7.6% -16.4% 67% 46% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 46% -11.6%
10% -24.4% 36% -20.1%
15% -31.7% 21% -27.8%
20% -38.4% 14% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$27 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$690
Realized−$83
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses66 / 32
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions5
Markets (closed)98 / 103
History coverage107d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $240 $229 −$11 (-4%)
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $212 $190 −$22 (-10%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 86¢ 96¢ $100 $112 +$11 (+11%)
Will Apple stop selling MacBook Neo? No 92¢ 94¢ $108 $109 +$2 (+2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$22 +44%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $50 +$33 +66%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$8 +16%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $50 +$30 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$1 +3%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$14 +27%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $25 +$7 +27%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 +$1 +3%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $50 +$16 +32%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $150 +$9 +6%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 18 $106 +$83 +78%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$17 +34%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$14 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $55 +$29 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$4 +14%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $90 +$27 +30%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$12 +50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 +$42 +42%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$6 +23%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$24 +97%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $25 +$8 +31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $50 +$12 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 98¢ $83 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 97¢ $100 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 58¢ $50 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 9h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $50 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $50 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $50 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 27h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 95¢ $50 29h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 97¢ $50 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 31h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 94¢ $50 33h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $50 36h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 78¢ $50 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 97¢ $25 2d
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 78¢ $25 2d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $66 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 84¢ $50 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 91¢ $50 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 90¢ $105 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 91¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $50 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 81¢ $50 2d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 2d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 72¢ $189 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $690.33 · official $690.33 (match) · 298 history records