Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:52:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e1c…5841 other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$990 (+5%) realized +$2,878 · open −$1,888
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate15%12W / 69L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,087per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$6,000
sports 0% +$41
politics 0% −$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-60.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -94.4% -94.9% 3% 3% -94.9%
≤30d 63 -93.0% -93.6% 5% 3% -95.3%
≤90d 81 -56.3% -60.5% 15% 7% -46.4%
all 81 -56.3% -60.5% 15% 7% -46.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.5% 7% -46.4%
10% -64.3% 6% -51.5%
15% -67.7% 6% -56.2%
20% -70.9% 5% -60.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -97% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$140 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$2,878
Unrealized−$1,888
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses12 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)81 / 18
History coverage54d
Avg bet$1,087
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $77 $1 −$76 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $77 $1 −$76 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $77 $1 −$76 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $77 $1 −$76 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $77 $1 −$76 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $77 $1 −$76 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $77 $1 −$76 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $77 $1 −$76 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $77 $1 −$76 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $77 $1 −$76 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $77 $1 −$76 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $1,000 $1 −$999 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$28 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $57 −$75 -132%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 23 $19 −$71 -369%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$71 -738%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 23 $19 −$74 -384%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 23 $29 −$76 -262%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 23 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 23 $38 −$64 -168%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,798 6m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $36 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $36 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 14h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 25h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $19 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $51 6d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 14d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $41 14d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $29 14d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 14d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $17 14d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 14d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 14d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $19 14d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.70 · official $12.70 (match) · 216 history records